By Abdullah Alkabir, a Libyan political writer and commentator
Features of the next stage
Regardless of the premature interpretations by some of the parties of the European-American statement, according to their whims and desires, the language of the statement on the issue of the expiration of the Tunis-Geneva Agreement was very clear, and was specified in three clauses on the political level, and one on the economic aspect.
Determinants of the next stage as stated in the statement:
The term of the Tunis-Geneva political agreement expired on June 22, but provided that the elections were held, with emphasis of the call for their speedy holding as soon as possible, and then the agreement will remain governing the stage until the elections are completed. The statement reaffirms an earlier UN official statement rejecting the use of the deadline of the agreement for political manipulation; forming of a unified government capable of governing and carrying out elections in all parts of the country, and this government is achieved through dialogue and compromise. Rejection of any measures that could lead to violence and increase division, such as the establishment of parallel institutions, the seizure of power by force, or the refusal to hand it over to a new executive authority, which was formed by a legitimate and transparent process.
In the details, the expiration date of the political agreement was last June 22, and since the goal of concluding the agreement was to hold elections, but the political parties failed and did not implement them, so the agreement continues to be valid, and likewise the work of the institutions emanating from it continues, until the parties agree on the rules organizing the elections.
However, the statement did not oppose the formation of a new (third government) which must meet two conditions in order to be able to carry out the elections; to be unified, including all parties, and have the ability to work across the country. As for the condition for its formation, it is dialogue between the parties to the crisis and the acceptance of compromise solutions, that is balanced and acceptable to all.
The last determinant directly relevant to the recent developments, as the statement refuses to form a parallel government, because it will restore the state of division, and it may open a door to violence on the pretext of possessing legitimacy, or push an attempt to seize power by force, and what is clearly implied here is the Bashagha government, as for the reference to handing over power to an executive authority, if it was formed through a legitimate and transparent process, it implies the Dbiebah government, whose head has stated several times that he will not hand over power except to an elected government.
Both governments are unable to complete the elections. This is the reason for not objecting to the formation of a third government, with the veiled hint that the process of forming the government of Bashagha lacks transparency, as the Secretary-General of the United Nations has previously stated.
After this US-European statement, the final word in defining the features of the next stage will be what the Security Council will decide in tomorrow’s session, Monday, after hearing the briefing of the United Nations Support Mission in Libya. It is unlikely, that the UN Security Council Statement would differ from the statement of the five countries, but with urgency to the legislative authorities to expedite the establishment of the constitutional basis and the completion of elections.
There is no great hope for consensus on the constitutional basis and election laws, during the meeting of Aqila and Al-Mishri in Geneva during the next two days, after the failure of the House of Representatives and HSC Committees in the Cairo Dialogue, and it is also unlikely that there would be consensus between the two Houses, with the participation of the active political and military actors, on a mini-government that would hold the elections.
However, it is likely that the United Nations will prepare for a new political forum that will resolve the government file and perhaps the election file as well.
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, and do not necessarily reflect those of the Libya Observer
