The dialogue draft, will it end the war or will it start another?

The dialogue draft, will it end the war or will it start another?

July 22, 2015 - 12:56
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By Ahmed Eddaera

In 1807, Napoleon Bonaparte occupied Portugal and Spain, which paved the way for the Peninsular War, one of the first national wars in Europe that ended with the French troops losing and withdrawing later in 1814. During this war, Denmark was an ally to France, so it was in favor of the occupation of Spain, however, one of the Spanish municipalities, called Huascar, took the initiative and declared war on Denmark out of rage and patriotism.

Six years later, the war came to an end and Spain gained independence.The other warring countries got involved in other wars; national, regional, and international as well as world ones, and yet occupied other countries. Later on, those countries witnessed turmoil and revolutions, then they made mutual relations after a period of political and military instability based on economic standards over years to come, yet Huascar was still at war with Denmark since it had never announced the end of war which in fact never began.


In 1981, 172 years after the declaration of the Peninsular War, a local historian accidentally found the war declaration document, in which not a single bullet was fired. He started preparing a ceremony to sign a ceasefire agreement!! And indeed, the ceremony was held on November 11, 1981 and the Danish ambassador to Spain and mayor of Huascar were among the attendees. The ceasefire agreement was officially signed. There weren't any confrontations between the two enemies, no bullets were fired and no fatality recorded. The war was just a delusion so its end was just a protocol procedure with an inevitable aftermath. 

Huascar is located in Granada, in Andalusia region from which Bernardino Leon; the Head of UNSMIL comes. Leon is the initiator of the agreement draft in Libya, which was signed unilaterally during Ramadan. Leon comes from Malaga, Andalusia region; the region that hosted in 1981 the signing of the ending of the never-started war.

Is it a coincidence, or were Andalusia people deeply fond of signing agreements regardless of outcomes? For instance, Granada surrender document that ended the Islamic existence in Andalusia. This document was signed by Abdullah Al-Sagheer, the last king of Al-Ahmar people with Isabella I, the queen of Castile and Ferdinand II, the King of Aragon. This signing of agreement, broken before its implementation, was nothing but words on paper that shed the Muslims’ blood in Granada’s streets.

As history repeats itself in different shapes, people continue to make the same mistakes, share the same experiences and obtain the same results, so is the signing of the Libyan political agreement draft just mere signing or is it expected to bring about tangible results on the ground, which can be felt by the citizens of Libya, who have become devastated by the war? Moreover, once we hear that some parties are pushing other conflict parties to sign the draft although it is not obliging, we think that life will turn rosy in color and all problems will be solved automatically, then the entire grudge among people will vanish and turn to goodwill and love!!

Unfortunately, this is not the truth, as the dialogue in Skhirat, Morocco was just a protocol or a delusion since the conflict parties met face to face only one time; the outcomes are to be as well delusive and vague. Moreover, the Skhirat dialogue was nothing but a power-sharing meeting as if the country (Libya) was all about them, although most of them were there without any official standards that determine who is entitled to attend and who is not.

The current political agreement did not consider the essential problems at all, but it intentionally delayed most of them to the annexes, which have not been discussed or put into a mechanism for negotiation until now. These problems were delayed so that fabricated solutions would be imposed later, such as involving Khalifa Haftar, HoR, State Council and the National Accord Government in the new structure.

Yet, as a Tripoli local, I’m concerned with the destiny of Tripoli, which was not negotiated by any of the dialogue parties at all as though the forces barricaded inside Tripoli and on its outskirts would be committed to the draft items or would surrender their weapons to the upcoming National Accord Government and return to their previous life as if nothing had happened.
Dear readers, I do not want to be pessimistic, but to be objective, there is a huge number of forces inside and on the fringes of Tripoli that call themselves Al-Sumood Front, which reject the dialogue and the draft. On the other hand, there is another huge power in Tripoli in favor of the dialogue and the draft, and it is ready to implement its items in and outside Tripoli. Moreover, there are other forces and powers outside Tripoli, which are called Libyan Army Backup Forces; these are armed groups loyal to the HoR and Gen. Khalifa Haftar’s forces.

Haftar is a military leader and a current controversial figure whose presence is totally rejected by Al-Sumood Front and some of the dialogue parties. Likewise, the current UNSMIL draft has passed talking of Haftar’s destiny to the National Accord Government, which would be granted authorities of the Chief Commander’s of the Libyan Army, knowing that the decisive decisions of the National Accord Government must be unanimously taken by the prime minister and his deputies. Thus, the decision to dismiss Haftar must be made by the Chief Commander (Prime Ministry) as a unanimous vote, so is this possible? Consequently, looking at the formation of National Accord Government as proposed by the UNSMIL draft, we could say that it is impossible, because it is formed of a consensual prime minister as well as a deputy from the HoR and another from the GNC. So, can they unanimously vote to dismiss Haftar? 

Let us go back to what could become of Tripoli. If the current draft was agreed upon and finalized by all parties, all of the forces in favor of the agreement will become legitimate by the decision of the national accord government. In addition, they will receive support by the world countries so that they use them to fight the extremists who reject the dialogue, such as Al-Sumood Front that is located inside Tripoli. Will these forces give up or will they fight and resist?

However, if the GNC was obstinate to sign the draft, it would be considered as a rejection of the dialogue altogether. Then the government agreed upon by the signing parties would be given international legitimacy and would be supported to fight (terrorism) and anti-peace parties, so will these (anti-peace) forces surrender their heads for decapitation, or will they fight on and on?

I believe, though I wish to be mistaken, that the current agreement in Libya is an absolute evil because it did not involve all of the political entities nor did it handle all of the unresolved issues. Hence, Haftar’s forces (let alone if I am a pro-Haftar or an anti-Haftar person) will wear legitimacy and international recognition as well as it would be supported to fight those who did not sign the agreement (anti-peace), who are unfortunately located in Tripoli and won’t surrender to their enemy whatsoever. Knowing that their enemy does not have the ability or the experience to overcome them. Therefore, what shall happen to Tripoli and its residents (whether with Haftar or against him) In this case, we put our trust in Allaha for the safety of all.

 

Disclaimer:  The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, and do not necessarily reflect those of the Libya Observer.