A birth of crescent oil region

A birth of crescent oil region

October 30, 2020 - 00:00
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By Issa Baghni, a professor interested in Libyan affair

Operation Dignity and its supported countries did not win the conflict, but it managed to divide the leaders of the western region, and the leaders became scattered.

Those leaders were silent when the cannons were raining down on the strongholds of fools, rebels, Sudanese mercenaries, and Russian infidels، who were assisted by them in the war. And when the war ended, the stalkers and those whose powers had expired raced to reap the benefits.

This frenetic race is to share power to stay in the Libyan scene for the next coming years, not to solve the country problem, at the expense of the Libyans afflicted by those corrupts.

The Head of High Council of State got his hopes down in order to accept him as an interlocutor of Agilah Saleh, the man who recruited all the federalists in his side.

The Deputy of the Presidential Council went to Moscow shoeless to meet Haftar’s sons, to become an interlocutor of Russian, and give Haftar an ‘emergency dose’ even If it were at the expense of the return of oil exports, before his fall by Agilah, whose hoping to gain power.

Whereas the President of the Presidential Council hinted at resignation in response to US pressures. After Libya-Turkey maritime agreement registered in UN body, no one will feel sorry about his absence and he may be the only winner because all parties involved have not reached any agreement.

This political and societal division does not matter much to the outside world as much as it is concerned with its interests.

However, opposing the interests of the Americans and the Russians over influence in Libya will escalate the crisis, unless there is a Turkish-Russian agreement in particular.

The UN game keeps repeating

For instance, the war in the present Nagorno-Karabakh province in 1923, when administrative borders were established for the Armenian (the Black Garden Mountains) within the Republic of Azerbaijan, which has no geographical connection with Armenia, the war has not stopped so far with external support for both sides.

In the Muslim-majority region of Kashmir, the governor of the Indian state, Hari Singh, annexed the region to India in 1947, and the war broke out in the region, which lasted for two years, and then Pakistan separated from India in 1949 and the Kashmiri problem was not resolved despite Pakistan's four wars with India.

In the west of Libya, the French authorities annexed a border strip 60 km wide from Ras Jdir in the west and 600 km long until Ghadames in 1894 CE, and despite Al-Baroni’s efforts, the land was lost. And the tribes in that region turned from the Nawil, Awlad Salaam, and Hamaila to the Libyan lands, however the Libyans forgot their land because the tribes had shifted from it and they were replaced by Ajlas, Awlad Dabbab and Wraghma.

The current un-innocent talks between Agilah Saleh and a group of federalists with the Egyptian intelligence support may not lead to any agreement, their aim is to create a situation similar to the previous scenarios, namely, the continued presence of two governments, one in the east in Benghazi and the other in Tripoli and specify a disputed area called the oil crescent that will be invested and its export revenues placed in the external bank, which will share the financial revenues to the Central Bank in Tripoli and Al-Bayda.

This scenario will continue until all parts are subjected to federalism, as an alternative to separation, which has strong opposition from many sides In the Libyan East, especially the White Cyrenaica ‘Burca Al-Bayda’, from Ajdabiya to Kufra.

There is an Egyptian, Emirati and even Russian desire to take this course, which faced many internal and external stumbling blocks, but it remains a means to shuffle the cards, perpetuate the war and prevent the formation of any successful political structures.

It is likely that such bilateral talks and agreements between Agilah, Al-Mishri and people like them will not lead to any solutions, unless the active states such as America and its shield Turkey, with the Russians, agree on effective solutions, the most important of which is the removal of the current worn out political structures.

 

Disclaimer:  The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, and do not necessarily reflect those of The Libya Observer